Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-22 3.081793 3.660914 4.305682 5.074844 5.965411 6.962040 8.159684
2025-06-29 2.082565 2.812908 3.720772 4.923495 6.465093 8.363852 10.867231
2025-07-06 1.507773 2.276819 3.327444 4.847236 6.964813 9.782068 13.778658
2025-07-13 1.266162 2.099449 3.330481 5.243433 8.092871 12.121003 18.169498
2025-07-20 1.040120 1.878835 3.208874 5.412027 8.892139 14.077712 22.252900
2025-07-27 0.881661 1.721162 3.139876 5.626713 9.761760 16.209872 26.808033
2025-08-03 0.726093 1.528155 2.968891 5.633436 10.282080 17.843087 30.755290
2025-08-10 0.577062 1.309280 2.706461 5.429615 10.406544 18.834879 33.761119
2025-08-17 0.452969 1.107413 2.432700 5.150968 10.346228 19.489342 36.247788
2025-08-24 0.375273 0.982897 2.282098 5.072691 10.623996 20.732841 39.830962
2025-08-31 0.314877 0.881496 2.157777 5.021745 10.937341 22.057652 43.664017
2025-09-07 0.285561 0.846831 2.168821 5.247790 11.812335 24.485504 49.690348
2025-09-14 0.244677 0.774227 2.085331 5.267348 12.291999 26.253072 54.731297
2025-09-21 0.208671 0.705041 1.996993 5.263355 12.725607 27.983372 59.881890
2025-09-28 0.177459 0.640288 1.906240 5.238199 13.109131 29.651296 65.064926
2025-10-05 0.171248 0.649209 2.005942 5.684870 14.591950 33.692336 75.295008
2025-10-12 0.154909 0.621373 2.002279 5.874413 15.510672 36.642301 83.557927
2025-10-19 0.141986 0.601099 2.015478 6.108609 16.560210 39.961869 92.845928
2025-10-26 0.123554 0.555678 1.947216 6.116986 17.068841 42.153684 99.942888
2025-11-02 0.101788 0.490159 1.804408 5.897871 16.988786 43.032105 104.302196
2025-11-09 0.081882 0.423953 1.643438 5.597787 16.661424 43.312804 107.372768
2025-11-16 0.069725 0.385007 1.561677 5.513474 16.881497 44.874475 113.406403
2025-11-23 0.059913 0.352394 1.493676 5.458581 17.172013 46.625880 120.002469